Chain Emails

All the time I am getting copied on chain emails… and you know, I don’t mind… so long as the folks who do it don’t mind receiving an… ahem… “pithy” reply.          

A while back, I got this one that I found particularly stupid because of it’s prostitution of faith, and of course its obligatory demand that you forward it to a large number of people immediately. I am sure some jerkoff was just giggling how he got the world to bend to his will and perform the digital equivalent of the stadium flush test. Right. Inspired.             

Below is the email, and my reply:          Saint Theresa’s Prayer I am picking 12 people (who have touched my life) and whom I think would want to participate. Please send this back to me (You’ll see why). In case anyone is not aware, Saint Theresa is known as the Saint of the Little Ways. Meaning she believed in doing the little things in life well and with great love. She is also the Patron Saint of flower growers and florists. She is represented by roses. May everyone who receives this message be blessed; Theresa’s Prayer cannot be deleted.  May today there be peace within; may you trust God that you are exactly where you are meant to be. May you not forget the infinite possibilities that are born of faith; may you use those gifts that you have received, and pass on the love that has been given to you. May you be content knowing you are a child of God; let this presence settle into your bones, and allow your soul the freedom to sing, dance, praise and love. It is there for each and every one of us.  Now, send this to 11 people within the next 5 minutes. And remember to send this back. I count as 1. You’ll see why. (Suggestion: copy and paste rather than forward) 
 
 
Wow, that’s inspiring…And, now, my reply… 

I wanted to send this to the twelve people who have touched my life, but I didn’t have their email addresses. 

Mom and Dad are the first two (Ok… I have their email address, but they don’t want to hear my BS) — without your deep desire to swerve, you would have never gotten to a 10th child… me. Keep on keepin’ on. 

Vinton Cerf and Tim Berners-Lee— counting you as one… Forget Al Gore, you guys actually did invent the internet. And porn has never been the same.  

Booker Noe—The namesake of the world’s best bourbon. 1 high ball glass. 7 ice cubes. A generous pour. Lather, rinse, repeat.  Whomever in first-millennia India invented the hookah–I wouldn’t touch a cigarette or a cigar, but jam tobacco in a hookah, and I am holding the smoke in until I get lightheaded.  

Elvis—I know you’re still alive. Tell Buddy Holly I said hello.  

Kurt Cobain—I know you’re not alive. You were certifiably crazy (I mean hell, you married Courtney Love and then shot yourself… what more proof do you need?), but you put Grunge music in the mainstream and killed Loverboy’s career. Now that’s real change.  

Ronald Reagan—Principled leadership and the ability to stay the course left the White House when you did. The guy we have now is trying, but I know our current situation would be different if you were still in charge.   

Bill Gates—You invented Windows, making it possible for the average person to know exactly how profoundly exasperating technology can be. Now, get the hell out of the way and let someone else try to get my stock price back up. And take that clown Ballmer with you. 

George Washington Carver—Invented peanut butter. I mean, who doesn’t love peanut butter?  

Neil Peart—The world’s greatest drummer, ever. You were my inspiration to learn to play drums. If I was half as good as you, I wouldn’t be writing pithy emails. I would be on a tour bus… with much younger girl in my lap…drinking vodka straight from the bottle… wearing leather pants.     

To all the girls I’ve loved before—I’m glad they came along… I dedicate this song… You’re married to someone else, so fucking stop calling me. 

Raise or Lower the Voting Age?

See here (subscription may be required). The Wall Street Journal’s online poll today asks if the US voting age should change, and if so, lower or higher?

Here is my take on it: most 18 year olds today know little or nothing about what is happening in the world, and very few of them are contributing to the survival of the nation or to the GDP in any meaningful way. The fact is, we already have plenty of folks in America who make very little or no contribution to the collective good, and then use their vote to extort scarce resources out of an overburdened system. And of course, what the govenment gives it first must take away, so that means higher taxes on everyone, but especially on those who had the audacity to overachieve.

My compromise: Move the voting age to 21, with one notable exception: Those who are on active or reserve duty may vote starting at age 18. The way I see it, if you are willing to volunteer to get your ass shot off, you should have at least some say in the process.

And while we’re at it, those on active duty should be able to buy beer at age 18. What kind of country do we live in where we tell a young man you are old enough to go halfway around the world and risk your life, but when you come home, you are too young to enjoy one of the most basic pleasures of manhood?

Kid gets an iPod box of rocks

See here. So, apparently, a mother bought two iPods from two different Target stores in the Fort Worth area, and both boxes had rocks in place of the iPod.  Target, in keeping with most retailers whose sales and margins are sucking wind, refused to give a refund. Both times. I am sure the the birthday girl was thrilled to toss aside the iPod for Target store credit, and loaded up Mossimo warmups, Calphalon pans, and the planet’s crappiest selection of CDs and DVDs. Nice.

Disclosure: As of publication I am long AAPL. I am not a professional, but I am trying this at home. It is highly recommended that you consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions.

$100 Oil? $100 Oil stocks? A Bold Prediction…

There has been alot of speculation about if and when oil will hit $100 per barrel. And the stocks of integrated oil companies (those who control the production and distribution assets from Saudi soil to the mouth of the gas pump nozzle) seem to move up and down in lock-step with oil prices… when will certain of those stocks see the same $100?

While I don’t agree that oil stocks should move up and down with crude prices, I have to admit the price of oil was one of the legs of my oil stock buying strategy. Last January, the morning oil fell below $50, I bought Conoco Phillips and Exxon Mobil. I had waited for weeks for that moment, and it didn’t last long: Both began to move up immediately as oil barrels increased in price. Oil moved much farther up, from that morning until the $83 price we saw recently represents a 60%+ increase in the price of oil barrel… and COP and XOM are only up about 25%-30%.

About a month after I bought these stocks, I read an article where Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffet’s outfit) had begun buying COP around the same day I did, and within weeks had amassed $3 billion in shares. Suddenly I felt that my “buy below 50″ strategy was validated. But the truth is, it is way oversimplistic.

COP and XOM are doing well because oil is high. But they always do well regardless of the price of oil. Why they are doing well right now has more to do with economics.

Steve Forbes subscribes to the theory that oil prices are high because the dollar is weak, and there are alot of dollars in circulation.  More dollars are chasing after the roughly same finite amount of oil (think OPEC production controls, and an unprecedented global demand… China, India), so the price of oil goes up. More dollars make our currency worth less in the global marketplace, so that in turn drives up the price at the pump. Also, big oil companies can bring profits in as more valuable currencies and convert them to larger amounts of dollars, thus inflating profits further (then do the opposite when the dollar is strong).

I agree with this because it makes sense to me. So, when I saw the fed’s recent rate cut and the release of even more dollars into the market, I knew that the usual seasonal plunge in oil prices was going to be at least delayed. If the price holds firm over the coming weeks, we will quickly be into heating oil season, and there is a good chance that at least 70-75 dollar oil will be with us for the winter months. In fact, the unseasonably warm weather in the northeast and north central states has been the one thing keeping oil futures from moving rapidly towards $90 per barrel.

So… when will we see $100 dollar per barrel oil? If the conditions above persist, by Memorial Day next year.  Fed tightening the money supply, interest rate increases, bad job numbers, and slowing in China and India all could slow demand. But none of those seem in the cards right now.  

What about $100 a share for Conoco and Exxon? By March at the latest. And if we get a cold snap that depletes natural gas reserves, much sooner. You heard it here first.

 

Disclosure: As of publication I am long XOM and COP

The Marathon Disease

See here. It was 88 degrees for last weekend’s Chicago Marathon, translating into impossible running conditions.

That is, unless you’re one of the African elite runners, in which case you breezed in well below 2:15 (though a good amount shy of the record). For the more pedestrian set it proved painful, even fatal.

Am I the only one who thinks marathon running is unhealthy? Especially when attempted in extreme conditions? Doubly so when attempted by people who are in no shape to be trying the distance at all?

I quietly wonder if we’re going to have a whole lot of people get into their 50s and 60s only to have organs they damaged years before quit working long before they should.

I love to run, and am routinely clocking 20 miles per week on average… closer to 25 in the Fall and Texas winter. In the Texas summer, its more like 15. The older I get, the harder to do mileage in the heat becomes. I don’t see any benefit in pushing that hard. Frankly, I run to get away from things… not into them. Running is an escape. I already have a job.

And besides it would cut into my wine drinking.  And that is completely out of the question.

Is that a flaming iPod in your pants, or…?

See here. So apparently this guy had an iPod burst into flames in his pocket. As a stockholder in Apple, I will tell you this: if this turns out to be true, I am getting out now. After the press coverage Apple received with the iPhone price cut, there is no telling what the media will do with this… except have a field day. And, if Apple has to stage a recall… there will be a stampede to the door that will make a Great White concert look like the buffet line at Souper Salad.

Disclosure: As of publication I am long AAPL. I am not a professional, but I am trying this at home. It is highly recommended that you consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions.

Rubik’s Cube Wars

See here. Some 16 year old solved the thing in under 11 seconds… for me, just enough time to pick it up and figure out that in fact there are six sides and six colors… Got it.. and now… (insert shot clock buzzer)… doh!

And what about the kid solving it in under 30 seconds using his feet? While the intellect impresses me, it’s time to get out of the house… maybe try meeting some girls, something.

Ladera Cabernet Sauvignon, 2005

Grapes from Mt. Veeder and Mt Howell, two of the more prestigious Napa growing regions. No tannins, which is a surprise for a three year old Cab this big. This also tells me that this vintage maybe has one more year before the fruit becomes muted. Today the fruit is great… the taste does remind me of other big cabs I have had from Howell Mountain grapes. Blueberries, touches of oak, vanilla and cherries. Lingers nice on the palate. Great wine. $75.

Kim Jong IL: “I’m an internet expert”

What a handsome guy… are those pants sansabelt?

This should be my first photo credit… it goes to Reuters, but do you think they really want credit for it?

Ok… while we’re on credit, the Supreme Leader gets a little … can you imagine being Tim Berners-Lee, sitting on the couch, watching the 2000 Presidential Debates on whatever BBC channel actually gives a shit who we elect, and then all of a sudden Al Gore claims that he “invented” the internet? Can you imagine the humiliation as you spit equal parts of Guiness and popcorn on unsuspecting revelers? Yeah, so this wasn’t quite that, but…

“I’m an internet expert.”  uh huh. Yeah. That doofus reduced me to no logicial response. And then I realize he has control of a large military and a nuclear program and I start to think… Yeah. That doofus reduced me to no logicial response.  Other than, yeah, your hand is swollen, it looks like you sat on it for a really long time, and you’re staring at it… what’s up with that?

RIAA: Congrats, you bankrupted a nobody.

See here. The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) won their first file sharing lawsuit, nabbing a judgment of $222,000 from a Minnesota court.

Let’s cut to the chase. File sharing is wrong. We all know it and always have. Artists didn’t put the product out to give it away for free, and this is just one of so many examples where technology has outrun the law. It wasn’t such a big deal when you dubbed your Metallica tape to give to a friend. It is a big deal when you put the electronic files on the web for millions to download perfect reproductions.

Record companies say that file sharing is eroding their profits and so they are forced to these extreme measures. Well, you got me there– suing single moms is pretty extreme. But what none of these clowns will acknowledge is the perfect truth of the situation: that the reason file sharing occurs is because the 10-song album as a product is a lousy one with a price point out of whack with reality, let alone with what the market will pay.

Have you listened to popular music recently? I was a teenager in the 80s’, and not in my lifetime have the acts been more bullshit cookie cutter. I turned on VH1 the other day, and in a video the singer had this stupid black mop haircut with a part you could file papers in. And you know what? The very next video featured a song that sounded almost exactly the same with a guy with the exact same stupid mop haircut. These bands look alike, sound alike, and suck alike.

For those who have one or two good songs, iTunes will hand them over for 99 cents each. You go to Best Buy, and you pay 18 bucks for these two songs plus eight more that are as likely to be crap than anything.

And what about user experience? It used to be cool to buy a CD… it had exclusive features for your computer… that is until Sony put a rootkit on the discs and scared the whole world away (tucked away in a program to manage, of all things, its Digital Rights Management, or DRM, see here).  A CD had stickers, lyrics, interesting liner notes, stuff that made you feel connected to the music and the musician. None of this occurs now… at least well enough to captivate the audience. So for the average consumer, what the hell is the point?

To the RIAA: want to stop file sharing…? First, take a deep breath and acknowledge that even if you sue the entire country, it will never happen. So what to do? Want to get consumers more apt to pay for music rather than boost it from file sharing sites? Start by focusing some of that legal budget on finding better acts, making better music, making better CDs with better liner notes and better content. Think “The Information” by Beck, or “Extraordinary Machine” by Fiona Apple. Both had DVD’s/ DVD sides with tons of extra content that made that purchase (even in the 18 bucks range) well worth the money. And if that doesn’t work, think $9.99. Even for two good songs and eight shitty ones, the average consumer will see it as a fair trade.

Oh yeah, and that ridiculous award amount? Won’t hold up in a million years. I don’t know what the hell these people were smoking, but how in God’s name can they divine that much damage by a lousy 24 songs sitting on Kazaa… with no actual proof anyone downloaded them or that any actual ”sharing” occurred? If appealed, I’ll bet that the final settlement is less than the all-in cost to wage the court fight. Maybe that will calm the RIAA down.