H J Mann

“I am, I fully grant, a phenomenon, but not because of any speed in composition. I asked myself the other day, ‘Who else, on so many issues, has been so right so much of the time?’ I could not think of anyone.”  – William F. Buckley, 1986

$100 Oil: Correct. I said we’d be there before May 2008. We got there intraday in very early January, and closed above $100 on February 19. Now, what we’d all give just to see oil back down at $100.

$100 Oil Stocks: Wrong. I said that Conoco and Exxon would cross the century mark by the end of March.

The Crocs fad was fading and with it would the stock price:  I said this when CROX was at $48. The stock is now hovering at $10.

Starbucks does not have room to grow: Correct. On January 7, Howard Schultz reassumed the CEO spot at SBUX and immediately announced a plan to close underperforming and cannibalizing locations. This bolstered the stock price, but a short the day I wrote about Starbucks followed by a cover when Schultz retook the reins resulted in a 25% profit. Moreover, Starbucks said on April 23 that  the economic environment was the “weakest in our company’s history.”

Countrywide found it’s bottom in the $4.50 range: Correct. Two days later, Bank of America bought Countrywide out for $7.16 per share, if you bought in just above the bottom at $4.37, this yielded a minimum of a 60% profit in just two days. It has since gotten back the $4.50 range, but I would not mess with it now.

Citi was good to go at around $26.50. Wrong. The promise of massive layoffs and writedowns send shares into the teens. Still believe its too big to fail, but staying away for now.

Merrill Lynch found support at $47.50. Yes and no. It found it twice, and on the third try plummeted through the floor. It has not held that level again convincingly since. 

Merrill Lynch is a buy on dips into the $40s. Right. In separate posts, I wrote about this twice, and both times the trade worked out. Merrill would dip into the high 40s and return to highs above $55. It happened a third time on March 4, with the stock hitting an intraday low of $47.98 and rallying immediately. A nifty trade if you played it. Again, on the third plunge, it fell through the floor, which was your signal to get clear. It is well below the levels where anyone should be holding. I am steering clear.

Yellow Roadway looks good at around $14.30. Yes. Dipped lower, then ran to around $20.

Mastercard looks like a buy at around $179.00. Right. It dipped to the low $170s first, and then screamed to above $220. That is a 25% gain really quickly. If you were holding, I hope you took at least some profit. If not, no worries. It dipped to the mid $190s and ran back up to over $300. Today, sitting pretty in the $280s.

Amazon looks like a short at around $82.00. Right. After I wrote this, it never saw this level again, and dipped into the 60’s, a nice gain in such a crappy market. Wrote about this again in April. It went from $80 to around $70… and quickly back over $80. I would stay away from it altogether.

Blackstone looks like a buy at around $16.75. Right and wrong. It got hammered into the $13 but now trades at more than $18. I still say that anywhere below $20 is a good long term play.

AIG looks like a buy at around $46. Right and wrong. It made a speedy return to the mid 50s, and has since absolutely collapsed into the low $30s. The issue: substantial exposure to the UK mortgage market, which isn’t faring much better than our own. I am still watching this for a long-term entry, but am in no hurry.

Buy Wachovia at $17. So far so good. Just a handful of days and its up about 8%.

 

 

Tags: Business And Life //